Tuks Stadium · Analysis updated 00:37 UTC
University of Pretoria vs Midlands Wanderers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for University of Pretoria and 1.23 for Midlands Wanderers, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives University of Pretoria the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.7% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
University of Pretoria home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Midlands Wanderers away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates University of Pretoria to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 27% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for University of Pretoria and 1.23 for Midlands Wanderers, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 1–010.3%
- 0–19.6%
- 2–18.4%
- 0–07.8%
Recent form
University of Pretoria
- 2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z · A vs NWU FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Hungry Lions · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Leicesterfield · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Upington City · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Orbit College · 0-0 (D)
Midlands Wanderers
- 2026-10-15T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Hope FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Venda FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Leicesterfield · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs NWU FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Casric Stars · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1st Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magesi | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 20 |
| 2 | Cape Town City | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 3 | Casric Stars | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 4 | Hungry Lions | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 15 |
| 5 | Lerumo Lions | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | Upington City | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Hope FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Highbury | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Gomora United FC | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | NWU FC | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Leicesterfield | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 12 | Midlands Wanderers | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | University of Pretoria | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Orbit College | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 3 |
| 15 | The Bees | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -8 | 3 |
| 16 | Venda FC | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.