URA vs Vipers Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for URA and 1.50 for Vipers, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Vipers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Vipers win

55.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.75 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

URA home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vipers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 19% / 26% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.75 goals for URA and 1.50 for Vipers, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

URA win19%

Draw26%

Vipers win55%

Double chance 1X

45%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

81%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals39%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score41%

Correct score

0–115.8%
0–211.9%
1–111.9%
0–010.5%
1–28.9%

Recent form

URA

2026-09-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs NEC · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Villa · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Maroons · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-22T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Buhimba Saints · 3-0 (W)
2026-05-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs KCCA · 0-0 (D)

Vipers

2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ntugasaze · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Nouadhibou · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nouadhibou · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Entebbe UPPC · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs APR · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-05-08T17:00:00.000Z · URA 1-1 Vipers (Premier League)
2026-01-24T17:00:00.000Z · URA 0-3 Vipers (Premier League)
2025-02-11T16:00:00.000Z · URA 0-2 Vipers (Premier League)
2024-11-22T16:00:00.000Z · URA 0-2 Vipers (Premier League)
2024-03-30T16:00:00.000Z · URA 0-2 Vipers (Premier League)
2023-11-23T16:00:00.000Z · URA 0-2 Vipers (Premier League)
2023-04-22T16:00:00.000Z · URA 1-1 Vipers (Premier League)
2022-11-26T13:00:00.000Z · URA 0-1 Vipers (Premier League)
2022-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · URA 0-3 Vipers (Premier League)
2021-11-27T12:00:00.000Z · URA 2-0 Vipers (Premier League)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	SC Villa	6	4	2	0	11	14
2	NEC	6	4	2	0	9	14
3	BUL	5	4	1	0	8	13
4	Entebbe UPPC	6	3	2	1	4	11
5	Vipers	5	3	1	1	11	10
6	KCCA	6	3	1	2	0	10
7	Blacks Power	6	3	0	3	-3	9
8	Kitara	4	2	2	0	2	8
9	UPDF	5	2	2	1	1	8
10	Maroons	6	2	1	3	2	7
11	Lugazi	6	2	1	3	-5	7
12	Police	6	2	1	3	-6	7
13	Mbarara City	5	1	2	2	-1	5
14	Express	6	1	2	3	-2	5
15	URA	5	1	1	3	-4	4
16	Ntugasaze	6	1	0	5	-10	3
17	Kataka	6	0	2	4	-10	2
18	Kigezi HomeBoyz	5	0	1	4	-7	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Vipers win, at 55.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.