Ural vs KAMAZ Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Ural and 0.85 for KAMAZ, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives Ural the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Ural win

60.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.83 – 0.85

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ural home form
9 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
KAMAZ away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ural to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 23% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.83 goals for Ural and 0.85 for KAMAZ, a combined 2.68 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Ural win60%

Draw23%

KAMAZ win17%

Double chance 1X

83%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

40%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–012.6%
2–011.5%
1–110.7%
2–19.8%
3–07.0%

Recent form

Ural

2026-09-26T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Kostroma · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Neftekhimik · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-14T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Shinnik Yaroslavl · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Luki-Energiya · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs KAMAZ · 2-0 (W)

KAMAZ

2026-09-18T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Shinnik Yaroslavl · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelyabinsk · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Kirov · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ural · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Leningradets · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

First League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nizhny Novgorod	13	11	1	1	27	34
2	FC Sochi	13	8	2	3	8	26
3	Veles	14	8	2	4	2	26
4	Ural	13	7	4	2	13	25
5	Torpedo Moskva	13	7	3	3	14	24
6	Spartak Kostroma	13	7	3	3	5	24
7	Shinnik Yaroslavl	13	4	7	2	4	19
8	Rotor Volgograd	13	5	3	5	6	18
9	FC UFA	13	4	6	3	2	18
10	Arsenal Tula	13	4	4	5	-9	16
11	Volga Ulyanovsk	14	4	3	7	-3	15
12	Chelyabinsk	13	4	3	6	-4	15
13	Enisey	13	3	5	5	-10	14
14	Leningradets	13	3	4	6	-12	13
15	FK Neftekhimik	13	4	0	9	-10	12
16	KAMAZ	13	2	4	7	-8	10
17	Ska-khabarovsk	13	1	4	8	-12	7
18	Tekstilshchik	13	1	4	8	-13	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Ural win, at 60.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.