Urawa vs V-varen Nagasaki Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Urawa and 1.58 for V-varen Nagasaki, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Urawa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

66.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.83 – 1.58

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Urawa home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
V-varen Nagasaki away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Urawa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 23% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.83 goals for Urawa and 1.58 for V-varen Nagasaki, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Urawa win44%

Draw23%

V-varen Nagasaki win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

1–19.6%
2–18.8%
1–27.6%
2–26.9%
1–06.1%

Recent form

Urawa

2026-10-10T06:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Tokyo · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-07T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Omiya Ardija · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kataller Toyama · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-19T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Tokyo Verdy · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Fagiano Okayama · 1-2 (L)

V-varen Nagasaki

2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gainare Tottori · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Cerezo Osaka · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Nagoya Grampus · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-09T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kochi United · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Vissel Kobe · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

J1 League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Machida Zelvia	12	8	3	1	20	27
2	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	12	8	2	2	19	26
3	Kashiwa Reysol	12	8	1	3	6	25
4	FC Tokyo	11	7	3	1	13	24
5	Vissel Kobe	12	7	2	3	7	23
6	Kashima	12	6	2	4	4	20
7	Kawasaki Frontale	11	5	4	2	6	19
8	Yokohama F. Marinos	12	4	6	2	4	18
9	Urawa	11	6	0	5	-3	18
10	Fagiano Okayama	11	5	1	5	-1	16
11	Nagoya Grampus	12	4	2	6	-4	14
12	Shimizu S-pulse	12	4	2	6	-10	14
13	Cerezo Osaka	11	3	4	4	-7	13
14	V-varen Nagasaki	11	3	3	5	-3	12
15	Gamba Osaka	12	2	5	5	-7	11
16	Kyoto Sanga	12	2	4	6	-8	10
17	Mito Hollyhock	11	2	3	6	-4	9
18	Tokyo Verdy	12	1	5	6	-12	8
19	Avispa Fukuoka	12	2	1	9	-8	7
20	JEF United Chiba	11	1	3	7	-12	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.