Urena SC vs Rayo Zuliano Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for Urena SC and 2.10 for Rayo Zuliano, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Rayo Zuliano the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Rayo Zuliano win

66.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.83 – 2.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Urena SC home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rayo Zuliano away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 5 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Urena SC win14%

Draw20%

Rayo Zuliano win67%

Double chance 1X

33%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

86%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

0–211.8%
0–111.3%
1–29.8%
1–19.3%
0–38.3%

Recent form

Urena SC

2026-10-24T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Lara · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-18T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Yaracuyanos FC · 1-5 (L)
2026-10-14T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Lara · 1-4 (L)
2026-10-11T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico el Vigia FC · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-07T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Trujillanos FC · 2-2 (D)

Rayo Zuliano

2026-09-19T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Monagas SC · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-16T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Trujillanos FC · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Portuguesa FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-09T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Urena SC · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-06T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Tachira FC · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-26T19:30:00.000Z · Urena SC 0-3 Rayo Zuliano (Copa Venezuela)
2022-07-30T20:00:00.000Z · Urena SC 1-0 Rayo Zuliano (Segunda División)
2022-04-10T21:00:00.000Z · Urena SC 0-6 Rayo Zuliano (Segunda División)
2021-10-16T19:30:00.000Z · Urena SC 4-0 Rayo Zuliano (Segunda División)
2021-08-29T20:00:00.000Z · Urena SC 1-1 Rayo Zuliano (Segunda División)

Copa Venezuela table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Anzoátegui FC	4	3	1	0	4	10
2	Atletico Avila FC	4	1	1	2	-2	4
3	Petare FC	4	0	2	2	-2	2
4	Marítimo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Zamora FC	6	4	1	1	12	13
2	Club Atletico Barinas	6	4	1	1	7	13
3	Atletico el Vigia FC	6	2	1	3	-5	7
4	Real Frontera	6	0	1	5	-14	1
1	Caracas FC	6	4	1	1	7	13
2	Aragua FC	6	3	1	2	6	10
3	Yaracuyanos FC	6	2	1	3	0	7
4	Fundación Lara Deportiva	6	1	1	4	-13	4
1	Rayo Zuliano	6	3	3	0	6	12
2	Deportivo Lara	6	2	1	3	0	7
3	Urena SC	6	1	3	2	-5	6
4	Trujillanos FC	6	0	5	1	-1	5
1	Monagas SC	6	5	0	1	11	15
2	Mineros de Guyana	6	3	1	2	10	10
3	Bolívar	6	2	1	3	-4	7
4	Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz	6	1	0	5	-17	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Rayo Zuliano win, at 66.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.