Kuban Stadium · Analysis updated 10:52 UTC
Urozhay vs Dinamo Stavropol Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Urozhay and 1.05 for Dinamo Stavropol, a combined total of 2.47. That distribution gives Urozhay the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Urozhay win
45.6% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Urozhay home form
5 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Dinamo Stavropol away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 1–012.0%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.8%
- 2–08.5%
Recent form
Urozhay
- 2026-06-14T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Zenit 2 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tyumen · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Amkar · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Kirov · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Bryansk · 1-2 (L)
Dinamo Stavropol
- 2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Irtysh Omsk · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-21T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Irtysh Omsk · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Zenit 2 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-14T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Moskva II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Torpedo Miass · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-16T13:00:00.000Z · Urozhay 1-1 Dinamo Stavropol (Second League A - Division A Silver)
- 2026-03-28T11:00:00.000Z · Urozhay 1-2 Dinamo Stavropol (Second League A - Division A Silver)
- 2022-06-21T15:00:00.000Z · Urozhay 1-0 Dinamo Stavropol (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2021-05-21T15:00:00.000Z · Urozhay 1-0 Dinamo Stavropol (Second League - Group 1)
- 2020-11-07T14:00:00.000Z · Urozhay 2-0 Dinamo Stavropol (Second League - Group 1)
Second League A - Division A Silver table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zenit 2 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 32 |
| 2 | Amkar | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | Tyumen | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| 4 | Torpedo Miass | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 19 |
| 5 | Dinamo Stavropol | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 11 |
| 6 | Dinamo Moskva II | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -22 | 8 |
| 7 | Irtysh Omsk | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -17 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Urozhay win, at 45.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.