Kuban Stadium · Analysis updated 18:22 UTC
Urozhay vs Tyumen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Urozhay and 0.90 for Tyumen, a combined total of 2.28. That distribution gives Urozhay the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Urozhay win
47.9% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Urozhay home form
5 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Tyumen away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Urozhay to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 28% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Urozhay and 0.90 for Tyumen, a combined 2.28 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.1%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–010.3%
- 2–09.7%
- 0–19.3%
Recent form
Urozhay
- 2026-06-14T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Zenit 2 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tyumen · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Amkar · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Kirov · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Bryansk · 1-2 (L)
Tyumen
- 2026-08-23T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Zenit 2 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Torpedo Miass · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-08-12T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Volna Nizhegorodskaya · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Stavropol · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Amkar · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League A - Division A Silver table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zenit 2 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 32 |
| 2 | Amkar | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | Tyumen | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| 4 | Torpedo Miass | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 19 |
| 5 | Dinamo Stavropol | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 11 |
| 6 | Dinamo Moskva II | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -22 | 8 |
| 7 | Irtysh Omsk | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -17 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Urozhay win, at 47.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.