Uruguay Montevideo vs La Luz Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.06 expected goals for Uruguay Montevideo and 1.10 for La Luz, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives La Luz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

65.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.06 – 1.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

La Luz away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates La Luz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 34% / 30% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.06 goals for Uruguay Montevideo and 1.10 for La Luz, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 37% and both teams to score at 44%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.

Match result (1X2)

Uruguay Montevideo win34%

Draw30%

La Luz win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals63%

Over 2.5 goals37%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

1–113.5%
0–112.7%
1–012.3%
0–011.6%
1–27.4%

Recent form

Uruguay Montevideo

La Luz

2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Plaza Colonia · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-04T22:00:00.000Z · H vs CA River Plate · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-27T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Cerrito · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Atenas · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Paysandu · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Oriental	6	4	1	1	3	13
2	Plaza Colonia	6	3	3	0	7	12
3	Fenix	6	3	2	1	6	11
4	Sportivo Huracan	6	2	4	0	3	10
5	Colón	6	2	3	1	3	9
6	Uruguay Montevideo	6	2	3	1	2	9
7	Rentistas	6	2	3	1	1	9
8	Cerrito	6	2	3	1	0	9
9	La Luz	6	1	4	1	-1	7
10	Miramar	6	1	2	3	-4	5
11	Paysandu	6	1	1	4	-3	4
12	Atenas	6	1	1	4	-6	4
13	CA River Plate	6	1	1	4	-7	4
14	Tacuarembo	6	0	3	3	-4	3
1	Atenas	23	12	5	6	9	41
2	Plaza Colonia	24	10	7	7	6	37
3	Rentistas	23	10	6	7	5	36
4	Colón	23	10	6	7	2	36
5	CA River Plate	24	9	6	9	5	33
6	Oriental	23	8	9	6	5	33
7	Cerrito	23	8	8	7	3	32
8	Paysandu	23	9	4	10	0	31
9	La Luz	23	8	7	8	-4	31
10	Fenix	23	7	9	7	2	30
11	Miramar	23	7	8	8	-2	29
12	Sportivo Huracan	23	7	6	10	-9	27
13	Tacuarembo	24	6	7	11	-9	25
14	Uruguay Montevideo	24	5	6	13	-13	21

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.