Estadio Alfredo Victor Viera · Analysis updated 15:23 UTC
Uruguay W vs Ecuador W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.87 expected goals for Uruguay W and 1.04 for Ecuador W, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives Ecuador W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.4% probability
Expected goals
0.87 – 1.04
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Uruguay W home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Ecuador W away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ecuador W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 30% / 32% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.87 goals for Uruguay W and 1.04 for Ecuador W, a combined 1.90 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.5%
- 0–014.9%
- 1–113.4%
- 1–012.9%
- 0–28.0%
Recent form
Uruguay W
- 2026-06-09T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Venezuela W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-05T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Colombia W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-18T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Chile W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-14T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Bolivia W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-10T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Peru W · 1-2 (L)
Ecuador W
- 2026-06-09T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Argentina W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-05T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Chile W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-18T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Peru W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-10T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Paraguay W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-03-07T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Uruguay W · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
CONMEBOL Nations League Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colombia W | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 20 |
| 2 | Argentina W | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 18 |
| 3 | Venezuela W | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 12 |
| 4 | Ecuador W | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 5 | Peru W | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 6 | Paraguay W | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| 7 | Chile W | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Uruguay W | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 9 | Bolivia W | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -38 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.