· Analysis updated 12:23 UTC
US Bougouba vs Diarra Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.89 expected goals for US Bougouba and 1.40 for Diarra, a combined total of 2.29. That distribution gives Diarra the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Diarra win
48.9% probability
Expected goals
0.89 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
US Bougouba home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Diarra away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Diarra to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 24% / 27% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.89 goals for US Bougouba and 1.40 for Diarra, a combined 2.29 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.2%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–010.1%
- 0–29.9%
- 1–09.0%
Recent form
US Bougouba
- 2026-06-13T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Réal Bamako · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-06-09T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Diarra · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-06-05T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Binga · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-31T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Bakaridjan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-25T18:30:00.000Z · A vs USFAS Bamako · 2-0 (W)
Diarra
- 2026-10-25T15:30:00.000Z · A vs ASC Kara · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs ASC Kara · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Nations · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nations · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-13T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Stade Malien Bamako · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Première Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Djoliba | 26 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 29 | 59 |
| 2 | Stade Malien Bamako | 26 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 13 | 50 |
| 3 | Réal Bamako | 26 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 49 |
| 4 | Diarra | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 44 |
| 5 | Binga | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 43 |
| 6 | USFAS Bamako | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 42 |
| 7 | ASKO | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | -3 | 33 |
| 8 | US Bougouba | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | -13 | 31 |
| 9 | Derby Academie | 26 | 5 | 14 | 7 | -3 | 29 |
| 10 | Bakaridjan | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | -7 | 27 |
| 11 | Afrique Football Élite | 26 | 7 | 6 | 13 | -15 | 27 |
| 12 | Onze Créateurs | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | -8 | 26 |
| 13 | Mali Coura | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | -11 | 20 |
| 14 | Bougouni | 26 | 4 | 4 | 18 | -31 | 16 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Diarra win, at 48.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.