Stade Jos Becker · Analysis updated 10:23 UTC
US Hostert vs FC Differdange 03 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.70 expected goals for US Hostert and 1.83 for FC Differdange 03, a combined total of 4.53. That distribution gives US Hostert the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
US Hostert win
56.5% probability
Expected goals
2.70 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
US Hostert home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FC Differdange 03 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.2%
- 2–26.6%
- 3–16.5%
- 3–25.9%
- 1–15.3%
Recent form
US Hostert
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Alisontia Steinsel · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Jeunesse Esch · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs F91 Dudelange · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Victoria Rosport · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Differdange 03 · 0-2 (L)
FC Differdange 03
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Victoria Rosport · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Résidence Walferdange · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Jeunesse Useldange · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Swift Hesperange · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Etzella Ettelbruck · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · US Hostert 0-2 FC Differdange 03 (National Division)
- 2026-03-08T15:00:00.000Z · US Hostert 2-3 FC Differdange 03 (National Division)
- 2025-09-14T14:00:00.000Z · US Hostert 0-1 FC Differdange 03 (National Division)
- 2025-04-27T14:00:00.000Z · US Hostert 0-4 FC Differdange 03 (National Division)
- 2024-11-03T14:00:00.000Z · US Hostert 1-3 FC Differdange 03 (National Division)
- 2023-05-14T14:00:00.000Z · US Hostert 0-1 FC Differdange 03 (National Division)
- 2022-12-10T14:00:00.000Z · US Hostert 0-5 FC Differdange 03 (National Division)
- 2022-04-16T16:00:00.000Z · US Hostert 0-0 FC Differdange 03 (National Division)
- 2021-11-07T15:00:00.000Z · US Hostert 4-1 FC Differdange 03 (National Division)
- 2021-04-05T16:00:00.000Z · US Hostert 1-0 FC Differdange 03 (National Division)
National Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNA Strassen | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 28 |
| 2 | FC Differdange 03 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 27 |
| 3 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 24 |
| 4 | UN Kaerjeng 97 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 21 |
| 5 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 6 | Atert Bissen | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 19 |
| 7 | Progres Niederkorn | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 8 | Résidence Walferdange | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 | F91 Dudelange | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 | US Hostert | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 11 |
| 11 | AS Jeunesse Esch | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 | Victoria Rosport | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Etzella Ettelbruck | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 | US Rumelange | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 7 |
| 15 | Wiltz | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -13 | 4 |
| 16 | Swift Hesperange | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | -36 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is US Hostert win, at 56.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.