Stade Jos Becker · Analysis updated 15:22 UTC
US Hostert vs Progres Niederkorn Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.09 expected goals for US Hostert and 1.35 for Progres Niederkorn, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Progres Niederkorn the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
69.8% probability
Expected goals
1.09 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
US Hostert home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Progres Niederkorn away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Progres Niederkorn to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 30% / 27% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.09 goals for US Hostert and 1.35 for Progres Niederkorn, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 0–111.7%
- 1–09.5%
- 0–08.7%
- 1–28.7%
Recent form
US Hostert
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Alisontia Steinsel · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Jeunesse Esch · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs F91 Dudelange · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Victoria Rosport · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Differdange 03 · 0-2 (L)
Progres Niederkorn
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs US Hostert · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kopstal 33 · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Racing FC Union Luxembourg · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Wiltz · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs US Rumelange · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNA Strassen | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 27 |
| 2 | FC Differdange 03 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 24 |
| 3 | UN Kaerjeng 97 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 21 |
| 4 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 5 | Progres Niederkorn | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 19 |
| 6 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 18 |
| 7 | Atert Bissen | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 16 |
| 8 | Résidence Walferdange | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | US Hostert | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 11 |
| 10 | F91 Dudelange | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 11 | Victoria Rosport | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 12 | AS Jeunesse Esch | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 7 |
| 13 | US Rumelange | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -16 | 6 |
| 14 | Etzella Ettelbruck | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 5 |
| 15 | Wiltz | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -10 | 4 |
| 16 | Swift Hesperange | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | -31 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.