Stade Mustapha Ben Jannet · Analysis updated 09:01 UTC
US Monastirienne vs East End Lions Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for US Monastirienne and 0.89 for East End Lions, a combined total of 2.74. That distribution gives US Monastirienne the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
US Monastirienne win
60.1% probability
Expected goals
1.85 – 0.89
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
US Monastirienne home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates US Monastirienne to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 22% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for US Monastirienne and 0.89 for East End Lions, a combined 2.74 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 50%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.0%
- 2–011.1%
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.8%
- 3–06.8%
Recent form
US Monastirienne
- 2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs CA Bizertin · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs ES Zarzis · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs US Ben Guerdane · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Stade Tunisien · 2-1 (W)
East End Lions
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AFAD · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AFAD · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-09-28T14:00:00.000Z · A vs US Monastirienne · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-09-21T15:00:00.000Z · H vs US Monastirienne · 0-4 (L)
- 2024-08-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Jaraaf · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is US Monastirienne win, at 60.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.