Stade John Grun · Analysis updated 13:39 UTC
US Mondorf-les-bains vs Progres Niederkorn Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for US Mondorf-les-bains and 1.65 for Progres Niederkorn, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Progres Niederkorn the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.9% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
US Mondorf-les-bains home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Progres Niederkorn away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–18.0%
- 2–17.6%
- 1–06.7%
Recent form
US Mondorf-les-bains
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs US Rumelange · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kischpelt Wilwerwiltz · 10-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Résidence Walferdange · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs UNA Strassen · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Atert Bissen · 2-1 (W)
Progres Niederkorn
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs US Hostert · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kopstal 33 · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Racing FC Union Luxembourg · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Wiltz · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs US Rumelange · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · US Mondorf-les-bains 2-1 Progres Niederkorn (National Division)
- 2026-02-08T15:00:00.000Z · US Mondorf-les-bains 1-0 Progres Niederkorn (National Division)
- 2025-08-09T16:00:00.000Z · US Mondorf-les-bains 0-1 Progres Niederkorn (National Division)
- 2025-04-27T14:00:00.000Z · US Mondorf-les-bains 2-1 Progres Niederkorn (National Division)
- 2024-11-03T14:00:00.000Z · US Mondorf-les-bains 1-1 Progres Niederkorn (National Division)
- 2024-05-05T14:00:00.000Z · US Mondorf-les-bains 2-4 Progres Niederkorn (National Division)
- 2024-05-01T17:00:00.000Z · US Mondorf-les-bains 0-2 Progres Niederkorn (Cup)
- 2023-11-26T14:30:00.000Z · US Mondorf-les-bains 0-3 Progres Niederkorn (National Division)
- 2023-05-14T14:00:00.000Z · US Mondorf-les-bains 0-1 Progres Niederkorn (National Division)
National Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNA Strassen | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 27 |
| 2 | FC Differdange 03 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 24 |
| 3 | UN Kaerjeng 97 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 21 |
| 4 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 5 | Progres Niederkorn | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 19 |
| 6 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 18 |
| 7 | Atert Bissen | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 16 |
| 8 | Résidence Walferdange | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | US Hostert | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 11 |
| 10 | F91 Dudelange | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 11 | Victoria Rosport | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 12 | AS Jeunesse Esch | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 7 |
| 13 | US Rumelange | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -16 | 6 |
| 14 | Etzella Ettelbruck | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 5 |
| 15 | Wiltz | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -10 | 4 |
| 16 | Swift Hesperange | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | -31 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.