Stade John Grun · Analysis updated 16:03 UTC
US Mondorf-les-bains vs UNA Strassen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for US Mondorf-les-bains and 1.45 for UNA Strassen, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives UNA Strassen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.0% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
US Mondorf-les-bains home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
UNA Strassen away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 0–110.8%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–08.5%
- 0–27.8%
Recent form
US Mondorf-les-bains
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs US Rumelange · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kischpelt Wilwerwiltz · 10-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Résidence Walferdange · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs UNA Strassen · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Atert Bissen · 2-1 (W)
UNA Strassen
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs US Esch · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs US Rumelange · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs US Mondorf-les-bains · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Résidence Walferdange · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Atert Bissen · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · US Mondorf-les-bains 1-2 UNA Strassen (National Division)
- 2026-05-23T14:00:00.000Z · US Mondorf-les-bains 0-0 UNA Strassen (National Division)
- 2025-08-03T14:00:00.000Z · US Mondorf-les-bains 0-1 UNA Strassen (National Division)
- 2025-03-30T14:00:00.000Z · US Mondorf-les-bains 3-1 UNA Strassen (National Division)
- 2024-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · US Mondorf-les-bains 1-1 UNA Strassen (National Division)
- 2024-02-25T15:00:00.000Z · US Mondorf-les-bains 1-1 UNA Strassen (National Division)
- 2023-08-27T14:00:00.000Z · US Mondorf-les-bains 2-4 UNA Strassen (National Division)
- 2023-04-12T18:00:00.000Z · US Mondorf-les-bains 2-1 UNA Strassen (Cup)
- 2023-02-19T15:00:00.000Z · US Mondorf-les-bains 1-0 UNA Strassen (National Division)
- 2022-08-21T14:00:00.000Z · US Mondorf-les-bains 1-2 UNA Strassen (National Division)
National Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNA Strassen | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 28 |
| 2 | FC Differdange 03 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 27 |
| 3 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 24 |
| 4 | UN Kaerjeng 97 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 21 |
| 5 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 6 | Atert Bissen | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 19 |
| 7 | Progres Niederkorn | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 8 | Résidence Walferdange | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 | F91 Dudelange | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 | US Hostert | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 11 |
| 11 | AS Jeunesse Esch | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 | Victoria Rosport | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Etzella Ettelbruck | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 | US Rumelange | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 7 |
| 15 | Wiltz | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -13 | 4 |
| 16 | Swift Hesperange | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | -36 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.