Stade John Grun · Analysis updated 03:22 UTC
US Mondorf-les-bains vs Union Titus Petange Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for US Mondorf-les-bains and 0.88 for Union Titus Petange, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives US Mondorf-les-bains the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
US Mondorf-les-bains win
48.5% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
US Mondorf-les-bains home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Union Titus Petange away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.5%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–010.5%
- 2–010.0%
- 0–19.2%
Recent form
US Mondorf-les-bains
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs US Rumelange · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kischpelt Wilwerwiltz · 10-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Résidence Walferdange · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs UNA Strassen · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Atert Bissen · 2-1 (W)
Union Titus Petange
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Les Aiglons Dalheim · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-05-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Swift Hesperange · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs US Mondorf-les-bains · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs F91 Dudelange · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AS Jeunesse Esch · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-17T14:00:00.000Z · US Mondorf-les-bains 1-0 Union Titus Petange (National Division)
- 2025-12-07T15:00:00.000Z · US Mondorf-les-bains 3-0 Union Titus Petange (National Division)
- 2025-05-04T14:00:00.000Z · US Mondorf-les-bains 2-1 Union Titus Petange (National Division)
- 2024-11-24T15:00:00.000Z · US Mondorf-les-bains 1-0 Union Titus Petange (National Division)
- 2024-04-20T16:00:00.000Z · US Mondorf-les-bains 2-1 Union Titus Petange (National Division)
- 2023-11-05T15:00:00.000Z · US Mondorf-les-bains 1-4 Union Titus Petange (National Division)
- 2023-02-26T15:00:00.000Z · US Mondorf-les-bains 2-0 Union Titus Petange (National Division)
- 2022-08-28T14:00:00.000Z · US Mondorf-les-bains 1-4 Union Titus Petange (National Division)
- 2022-04-16T16:00:00.000Z · US Mondorf-les-bains 1-1 Union Titus Petange (National Division)
- 2021-11-07T15:00:00.000Z · US Mondorf-les-bains 2-1 Union Titus Petange (National Division)
National Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNA Strassen | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 31 |
| 2 | FC Differdange 03 | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 30 |
| 3 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 24 |
| 4 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 19 | 22 |
| 5 | Atert Bissen | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 22 |
| 6 | UN Kaerjeng 97 | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 21 |
| 7 | Progres Niederkorn | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 8 | Résidence Walferdange | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 16 |
| 9 | F91 Dudelange | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | AS Jeunesse Esch | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 13 |
| 11 | Victoria Rosport | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 11 |
| 12 | US Hostert | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 11 |
| 13 | Etzella Ettelbruck | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 | US Rumelange | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -16 | 8 |
| 15 | Wiltz | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -13 | 5 |
| 16 | Swift Hesperange | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | -39 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is US Mondorf-les-bains win, at 48.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.