· Analysis updated 13:35 UTC
US Tchologo vs SOA Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.02 expected goals for US Tchologo and 1.30 for SOA, a combined total of 2.32. That distribution gives SOA the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.0% probability
Expected goals
1.02 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
US Tchologo home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SOA to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 29% / 28% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.02 goals for US Tchologo and 1.30 for SOA, a combined 2.32 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 41% and both teams to score at 47%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.0%
- 0–112.8%
- 1–010.0%
- 0–09.8%
- 1–28.5%
Recent form
US Tchologo
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs ISCA · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-24T15:30:00.000Z · A vs ES Agboville · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-18T15:30:00.000Z · H vs SOA · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bouaké · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Korhogo · 3-0 (W)
SOA
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yamoussoukro | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | SOA | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Zoman | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | ES Agboville | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | San-Pédro | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | SOL | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Stade d'Abidjan | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | ISCA | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Bouaké | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 10 | Korhogo | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 11 | AFAD | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 12 | Stella | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 13 | ASEC Mimosas | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 14 | US Tchologo | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 15 | Mouna | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 16 | Adiake | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.