Bethlehem Soccer Stadium · Referee K. Garcia · Analysis updated 00:09 UTC
US Virgin Islands vs British Virgin Islands Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for US Virgin Islands and 1.68 for British Virgin Islands, a combined total of 3.49. That distribution gives US Virgin Islands the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.9% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
US Virgin Islands home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
British Virgin Islands away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates US Virgin Islands to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 22% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for US Virgin Islands and 1.68 for British Virgin Islands, a combined 3.49 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.3%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–27.8%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–05.5%
Recent form
US Virgin Islands
- 2026-10-04T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Bahamas · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-01T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Saint Martin · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-29T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Bahamas · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Saint Martin · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-29T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Puerto Rico · 0-2 (L)
British Virgin Islands
- 2026-09-26T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Montserrat · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-06-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bonaire · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-03T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gibraltar · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-03-29T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Anguilla · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-03-27T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Cayman Islands · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2024-03-26T19:00:00.000Z · US Virgin Islands 0-0 British Virgin Islands (World Cup - Qualification CONCACAF)
- 2024-03-22T21:00:00.000Z · US Virgin Islands 1-1 British Virgin Islands (World Cup - Qualification CONCACAF)
World Cup - Qualification CONCACAF table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panama | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 2 | Suriname | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Guatemala | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 4 | El Salvador | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 1 | Curaçao | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 12 |
| 2 | Jamaica | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 11 |
| 3 | Trinidad and Tobago | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Bermuda | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -19 | 1 |
| 1 | Haiti | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 2 | Honduras | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Costa Rica | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Nicaragua | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.