Soldier Field · Referee Piero Maza, Chile · Analysis updated 23:28 UTC
USA vs Germany Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.92 expected goals for USA and 3.33 for Germany, a combined total of 5.25. That distribution gives Germany the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 89% for over 2.5 goals and 82% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Germany win
64.8% probability
Expected goals
1.92 – 3.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
USA home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Germany to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 20% / 15% / 65% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.92 goals for USA and 3.33 for Germany, a combined 5.25 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 89% and both teams to score at 82%, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 6%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
35%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–36.2%
- 2–36.0%
- 1–25.6%
- 2–25.4%
- 1–45.1%
Recent form
USA
- 2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Chile · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Peru · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-07-07T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Belgium · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-07-02T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Bosnia & Herzegovina · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-26T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Türkiye · 2-3 (L)
Germany
- 2026-10-01T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Serbia · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Greece · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-24T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Netherlands · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-29T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Paraguay · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-25T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Ecuador · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Germany win, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 82% and over 2.5 goals at 89%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.