Subaru Park · Analysis updated 09:51 UTC
USA vs Paraguay Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for USA and 1.25 for Paraguay, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives USA the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
USA win
46.1% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
USA home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Paraguay away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates USA to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 24% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for USA and 1.25 for Paraguay, a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–09.2%
- 2–07.4%
- 1–27.2%
Recent form
USA
- 2026-10-07T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Canada · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Mexico · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Chile · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Peru · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-07-07T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Belgium · 1-4 (L)
Paraguay
- 2026-07-04T21:00:00.000Z · H vs France · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-29T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Germany · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-26T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Australia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-20T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Türkiye · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-13T01:00:00.000Z · A vs USA · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-13T01:00:00.000Z · USA 4-1 Paraguay (World Cup)
- 2025-11-15T22:00:00.000Z · USA 2-1 Paraguay (Friendlies)
- 2018-03-27T23:30:00.000Z · USA 1-0 Paraguay (Friendlies)
- 2016-06-11T23:00:00.000Z · USA 1-0 Paraguay (Copa America)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is USA win, at 46.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.