Raymond James Stadium · Referee Julio Cesar de Jesus Luna Guzman, Guatemala · Analysis updated 13:17 UTC
USA vs Uruguay Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for USA and 1.08 for Uruguay, a combined total of 2.03. That distribution gives Uruguay the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.5% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
USA home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Uruguay away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Uruguay to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 32% / 31% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for USA and 1.08 for Uruguay, a combined 2.03 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.2%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–013.2%
- 1–012.5%
- 0–27.6%
Recent form
USA
- 2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Chile · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Peru · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-07-07T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Belgium · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-07-02T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Bosnia & Herzegovina · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-26T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Türkiye · 2-3 (L)
Uruguay
- 2026-06-27T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Spain · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-21T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cape Verde Islands · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-06-15T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Saudi Arabia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-03-31T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Algeria · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-03-27T19:45:00.000Z · A vs England · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.