Uşak 1 Eylül Stadı · Analysis updated 10:44 UTC
Uşak Spor vs Nazilli Spor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.28 expected goals for Uşak Spor and 0.83 for Nazilli Spor, a combined total of 4.10. That distribution gives Uşak Spor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 84%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 84% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Uşak Spor win
83.8% probability
Expected goals
3.28 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Uşak Spor home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Nazilli Spor away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Uşak Spor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 84%, against 84% / 10% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.28 goals for Uşak Spor and 0.83 for Nazilli Spor, a combined 4.10 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
90%
Double chance X2
16%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–09.7%
- 2–08.9%
- 3–18.0%
- 4–07.9%
- 2–17.3%
Recent form
Uşak Spor
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bursa Yıldırımspor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Altay · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-07T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Nilüfer Belediye · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Etimesgut SK · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Akşehirspor · 3-0 (W)
Nazilli Spor
- 2026-04-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Uşak Spor · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Altay · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Afjet Afyonspor · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-03-28T13:00:00.000Z · A vs İzmir Çoruhlu FK · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-03-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Anadolu Üniversitesi · 0-12 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Lig - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kütahyaspor | 30 | 24 | 3 | 3 | 51 | 75 |
| 2 | Eskişehirspor | 30 | 22 | 5 | 3 | 56 | 71 |
| 3 | Karsiyaka | 30 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 45 | 67 |
| 4 | Ayvalikgucu | 30 | 18 | 5 | 7 | 32 | 59 |
| 5 | Balıkesirspor | 30 | 17 | 7 | 6 | 35 | 58 |
| 6 | Uşak Spor | 30 | 15 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 48 |
| 7 | Denizli İYG | 30 | 14 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 47 |
| 8 | Alanya 1221 FK | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | -5 | 38 |
| 9 | Tire 2021 FK | 30 | 10 | 7 | 13 | 8 | 37 |
| 10 | Söke 1970 | 30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | -4 | 35 |
| 11 | Anadolu Üniversitesi | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 2 | 35 |
| 12 | Altay | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | -12 | 28 |
| 13 | İzmir Çoruhlu FK | 30 | 6 | 5 | 19 | -38 | 23 |
| 14 | Afjet Afyonspor | 30 | 5 | 7 | 18 | -30 | 22 |
| 15 | Bornova 1877 | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | -33 | 21 |
| 16 | Nazilli Spor | 30 | 0 | 4 | 26 | -111 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Uşak Spor win, at 83.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 84% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.