· Analysis updated 11:10 UTC
USD Casatese vs Arconatese Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.45 expected goals for USD Casatese and 0.85 for Arconatese, a combined total of 3.29. That distribution gives USD Casatese the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
USD Casatese win
72.6% probability
Expected goals
2.45 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
USD Casatese home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Arconatese away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
27%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.1%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–09.1%
- 3–09.1%
- 1–17.7%
Recent form
USD Casatese
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pistoiese · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Varesina · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Correggese · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sant'Angelo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Solbiatese · 0-0 (D)
Arconatese
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pavia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pro Patria · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pistoiese · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Correggese · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs USD Casatese · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · USD Casatese 2-1 Arconatese (Serie D - Girone D)
- 2025-03-02T13:30:00.000Z · USD Casatese 0-0 Arconatese (Serie D - Girone B)
- 2024-10-27T13:30:00.000Z · USD Casatese 1-1 Arconatese (Serie D - Girone B)
- 2024-03-24T13:30:00.000Z · USD Casatese 1-1 Arconatese (Serie D - Girone B)
- 2023-11-12T13:30:00.000Z · USD Casatese 2-3 Arconatese (Serie D - Girone B)
- 2023-05-14T14:00:00.000Z · USD Casatese 2-1 Arconatese (Serie D - Promotion - Play-offs)
- 2023-01-15T13:30:00.000Z · USD Casatese 0-1 Arconatese (Serie D - Girone B)
- 2022-09-11T13:00:00.000Z · USD Casatese 1-0 Arconatese (Serie D - Girone B)
- 2022-01-29T13:30:00.000Z · USD Casatese 1-1 Arconatese (Serie D - Girone B)
- 2021-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · USD Casatese 1-2 Arconatese (Serie D - Girone B)
Serie D - Girone D table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pistoiese | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 24 |
| 2 | Pro Patria | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | Castellanzese | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Lentigione | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 5 | Pro Sesto | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 6 | USD Casatese | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Città di Varese | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 |
| 8 | Cittadella Vis Modena | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Sant'Angelo | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 10 | Solbiatese | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | Correggese | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 | Pavia | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 13 | Crema | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 | Varesina | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Coriano | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Oltrepò | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | Arconatese | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -14 | 3 |
| 18 | Pontedera | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -16 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is USD Casatese win, at 72.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.