Campo Sportivo Comunale · Analysis updated 06:28 UTC
USD Casatese vs Leon Monza e Brianza Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for USD Casatese and 1.10 for Leon Monza e Brianza, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives USD Casatese the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.6% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
USD Casatese home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Leon Monza e Brianza away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.0%
- 1–011.8%
- 0–110.0%
- 0–09.1%
- 2–18.4%
Recent form
USD Casatese
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pistoiese · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Varesina · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Correggese · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sant'Angelo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Solbiatese · 0-0 (D)
Leon Monza e Brianza
- 2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Calepina · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Milano · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Villa Valle · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rovato Vertovese · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Piacenza · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-10T14:00:00.000Z · USD Casatese 4-0 Leon (Serie D - Girone B)
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · USD Casatese 1-0 Leon Monza e Brianza (Serie D - Girone B)
- 2025-12-21T13:30:00.000Z · USD Casatese 0-0 Leon Monza e Brianza (Serie D - Girone B)
- 2022-05-08T14:00:00.000Z · USD Casatese 4-2 Leon Monza e Brianza (Serie D - Girone B)
- 2021-12-22T13:30:00.000Z · USD Casatese 0-1 Leon Monza e Brianza (Serie D - Girone B)
Serie D - Girone B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nibbiano & Valtidone | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 21 |
| 2 | Chievo | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | Leon | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 15 |
| 4 | Piacenza | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 5 | Villa Valle | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Caldiero Terme | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | Milan II | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | Virtus Verona | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | Real Calepina | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Pavonese | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | Pro Palazzolo | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 12 | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 13 | Scanzorosciate | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 14 | Brusaporto | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 9 |
| 15 | Rovato Vertovese | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 16 | Club Milano | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 | Fiorenzuola | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
| 18 | Tritium | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.