· Analysis updated 16:06 UTC
USD Palmese vs Real Normanna Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for USD Palmese and 1.71 for Real Normanna, a combined total of 3.52. That distribution gives USD Palmese the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.0% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.71
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
USD Palmese home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates USD Palmese to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 22% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for USD Palmese and 1.71 for Real Normanna, a combined 3.52 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 68% and both teams to score at 69%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.2%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–27.9%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–05.4%
Recent form
USD Palmese
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nocerina · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Normanna · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Francavilla · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Turris · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Virtus Francavilla · 1-3 (L)
Real Normanna
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone H table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virtus Francavilla | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 18 |
| 2 | Martina Franca | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 15 |
| 3 | Turris | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 15 |
| 4 | Bisceglie | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 5 | Nocerina | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Gravina | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 7 | Brindisi | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | Manfredonia | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Real Normanna | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Gladiator | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | Ebolitana | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | Real Forio 2014 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | USD Palmese | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 14 | Fidelis Andria | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 15 | Nardò | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 6 |
| 16 | Ischia | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 5 |
| 17 | Francavilla | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 4 |
| 18 | Melfi | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.