Uskok Klis vs Varteks Varaždin Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.52 expected goals for Uskok Klis and 0.70 for Varteks Varaždin, a combined total of 3.22. That distribution gives Uskok Klis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Uskok Klis win

76.8% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.52 – 0.70

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Uskok Klis home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Varteks Varaždin away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Uskok Klis to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 77% / 15% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.52 goals for Uskok Klis and 0.70 for Varteks Varaždin, a combined 3.22 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Uskok Klis win77%

Draw15%

Varteks Varaždin win8%

Double chance 1X

92%

Double chance 12

85%

Double chance X2

23%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

2–012.7%
3–010.6%
1–010.1%
2–18.9%
3–17.5%

Recent form

Uskok Klis

2026-10-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Uljanik · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Solin · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-09T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-24T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Koprivnica · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bjelovar · 2-3 (L)

Varteks Varaždin

2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Koprivnica · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bjelovar · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter Zapresic · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Dugo Selo · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Uskok Klis · 1-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Second NL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Uskok Klis	9	7	0	2	14	21
2	Dugo Selo	10	6	1	3	8	19
3	Bjelovar	10	5	3	2	9	18
4	Jarun	9	3	6	0	5	15
5	Solin	10	4	3	3	4	15
6	Slavonija Požega	10	4	3	3	3	15
7	Trnje	10	4	2	4	2	14
8	Uljanik	10	4	2	4	-3	14
9	Inter Zapresic	10	3	4	3	-1	13
10	Zagora	10	2	6	2	1	12
11	Križevci	10	3	3	4	-3	12
12	Grobničan Čavle	10	3	3	4	-6	12
13	Hrvatski Dragovoljac	10	3	2	5	-7	11
14	Lucko	10	2	4	4	-2	10
15	Varteks Varaždin	10	2	2	6	-9	8
16	Koprivnica	10	1	2	7	-15	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Uskok Klis win, at 76.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.