· Analysis updated 10:32 UTC
USM Annaba vs MO Bejaia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for USM Annaba and 0.90 for MO Bejaia, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives USM Annaba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
USM Annaba win
47.1% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
USM Annaba home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
MO Bejaia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates USM Annaba to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 28% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for USM Annaba and 0.90 for MO Bejaia, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.2%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–010.6%
- 2–09.6%
- 0–19.5%
Recent form
USM Annaba
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs CA Batna · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Teleghma · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs US Chaouia · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Paradou AC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Khroub · 0-1 (L)
MO Bejaia
- 2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Nrb Beni Oulbene · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs USM Annaba · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-21T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Khroub · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs JS Bordj Ménaïel · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs US Chaouia · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Azazga | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | MSP Batna | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 3 | USM Annaba | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 4 | JSM Skikda | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Khroub | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | NC Magra | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | MO Bejaia | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | MO Constantine | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | CA Batna | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | Teleghma | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Nrb Beni Oulbene | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | US Chaouia | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | Paradou AC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | IRB Nezla | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | CR Béni Thour | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
| 16 | JS Jijel | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 2 |
| 1 | GC Mascara | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 17 |
| 2 | Blida | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 17 |
| 3 | RC Kouba | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 15 |
| 4 | MC Saida | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 | ASM Oran | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| 6 | Usm El Harrach | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Mostaganem | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Sidi Benali | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Hussein Dey | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 10 | WA Mostaganem | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 11 | WA Tlemcen | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Tiaret | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| 13 | RC Arba | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 14 | El Bayadh | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 15 | Koléa | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 3 |
| 16 | Taghit | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -19 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is USM Annaba win, at 47.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.