· Analysis updated 11:10 UTC
USM Annaba vs MO Constantine Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.04 expected goals for USM Annaba and 0.69 for MO Constantine, a combined total of 1.73. That distribution gives USM Annaba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 25% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
76.1% probability
Expected goals
1.04 – 0.69
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
USM Annaba home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
MO Constantine away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.5%
- 0–017.8%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–112.3%
- 2–09.6%
Recent form
USM Annaba
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs CA Batna · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Teleghma · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs US Chaouia · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Paradou AC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Khroub · 0-1 (L)
MO Constantine
- 2026-10-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nrb Beni Oulbene · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-14T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Azazga · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs IRB Nezla · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs CR Béni Thour · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs MSP Batna · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-17T14:00:00.000Z · USM Annaba 0-0 MO Constantine (Ligue 2)
- 2025-11-29T13:00:00.000Z · USM Annaba 1-2 MO Constantine (Ligue 2)
- 2025-02-19T13:00:00.000Z · USM Annaba 4-3 MO Constantine (Ligue 2)
- 2024-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · USM Annaba 2-0 MO Constantine (Ligue 2)
- 2024-03-16T14:00:00.000Z · USM Annaba 1-1 MO Constantine (Ligue 2)
- 2023-11-10T14:00:00.000Z · USM Annaba 0-0 MO Constantine (Ligue 2)
- 2023-05-27T15:30:00.000Z · USM Annaba 3-1 MO Constantine (Ligue 2)
- 2023-01-07T13:00:00.000Z · USM Annaba 0-1 MO Constantine (Ligue 2)
- 2022-05-07T13:30:00.000Z · USM Annaba 1-4 MO Constantine (Ligue 2)
- 2022-01-08T13:00:00.000Z · USM Annaba 1-1 MO Constantine (Ligue 2)
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSP Batna | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 2 | Azazga | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 3 | USM Annaba | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 |
| 4 | MO Constantine | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | NC Magra | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 | JSM Skikda | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Khroub | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Nrb Beni Oulbene | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | US Chaouia | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | MO Bejaia | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 11 | Paradou AC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 12 | CA Batna | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 13 | Teleghma | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | IRB Nezla | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | CR Béni Thour | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 16 | JS Jijel | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 1 |
| 1 | Blida | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 16 |
| 2 | RC Kouba | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 14 |
| 3 | GC Mascara | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | MC Saida | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | ASM Oran | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 6 | Usm El Harrach | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Mostaganem | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Sidi Benali | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | WA Mostaganem | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 10 | Hussein Dey | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 11 | Tiaret | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | WA Tlemcen | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 13 | RC Arba | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 14 | Koléa | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 15 | El Bayadh | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 2 |
| 16 | Taghit | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -17 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 76.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 25%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.