Usm El Harrach vs Koléa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.22 expected goals for Usm El Harrach and 0.92 for Koléa, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Usm El Harrach the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Usm El Harrach win

66.9% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.22 – 0.92

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Koléa away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Usm El Harrach to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 19% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.22 goals for Usm El Harrach and 0.92 for Koléa, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 61% and both teams to score at 53%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Match result (1X2)

Usm El Harrach win67%

Draw19%

Koléa win14%

Double chance 1X

86%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

33%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

2–010.7%
2–19.8%
1–09.7%
1–18.8%
3–07.9%

Recent form

Usm El Harrach

Koléa

2026-05-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Hussein Dey · 1-3 (L)
2026-05-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs WA Tlemcen · 0-2 (L)
2026-04-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Usm El Harrach · 1-2 (L)
2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs JS El Biar · 0-1 (L)
2026-04-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs MC Saida · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ligue 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Azazga	7	4	2	1	5	14
2	MSP Batna	7	4	2	1	3	14
3	USM Annaba	7	4	1	2	6	13
4	JSM Skikda	6	4	0	2	3	12
5	Khroub	7	3	3	1	2	12
6	NC Magra	7	3	2	2	-1	11
7	MO Bejaia	6	3	1	2	3	10
8	MO Constantine	7	2	4	1	1	10
9	CA Batna	7	2	3	2	1	9
10	Teleghma	7	2	2	3	-1	8
11	Nrb Beni Oulbene	7	2	2	3	-1	8
12	US Chaouia	7	2	2	3	-4	8
13	Paradou AC	6	2	1	3	0	7
14	IRB Nezla	6	1	1	4	-4	4
15	CR Béni Thour	6	1	0	5	-7	3
16	JS Jijel	6	0	2	4	-6	2
1	GC Mascara	7	5	2	0	9	17
2	Blida	7	5	2	0	9	17
3	RC Kouba	7	4	3	0	10	15
4	MC Saida	6	4	2	0	4	14
5	ASM Oran	7	3	2	2	6	11
6	Usm El Harrach	7	3	2	2	2	11
7	Mostaganem	7	3	2	2	2	11
8	Sidi Benali	7	3	2	2	0	11
9	Hussein Dey	7	3	0	4	-1	9
10	WA Mostaganem	7	1	4	2	-1	7
11	WA Tlemcen	6	2	1	3	-3	7
12	Tiaret	7	1	2	4	1	5
13	RC Arba	4	1	0	3	-5	3
14	El Bayadh	7	0	3	4	-6	3
15	Koléa	6	1	0	5	-8	3
16	Taghit	7	0	1	6	-19	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Usm El Harrach win, at 66.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.