Stade des Échalonnières · Analysis updated 00:11 UTC
USSA Vertou vs Vendée Fontenay Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for USSA Vertou and 1.50 for Vendée Fontenay, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Vendée Fontenay the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.7% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vendée Fontenay away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vendée Fontenay to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 32% / 25% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for USSA Vertou and 1.50 for Vendée Fontenay, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 53% and both teams to score at 56%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 0–19.4%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–07.9%
- 2–17.6%
Recent form
USSA Vertou
Vendée Fontenay
- 2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Chauvigny · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Panazol · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs La Châtaigneraie · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Le Poiré sur Vie · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs UF Touraine · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National 3 - Group B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Le Poiré sur Vie | 26 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 57 |
| 2 | UF Touraine | 26 | 17 | 5 | 4 | 31 | 56 |
| 3 | Nantes II | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 51 |
| 4 | Challans | 26 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 26 | 46 |
| 5 | La Châtaigneraie | 26 | 10 | 9 | 7 | -3 | 39 |
| 6 | Vendée Fontenay | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | -8 | 32 |
| 7 | Les Sables | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | -1 | 32 |
| 8 | Panazol | 26 | 11 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 32 |
| 9 | Châteauroux II | 26 | 9 | 4 | 13 | -3 | 31 |
| 10 | St-Philbert Gd Lieu | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | -12 | 30 |
| 11 | USSA Vertou | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | -6 | 28 |
| 12 | Chauvigny | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | -12 | 24 |
| 13 | Angers SCO II | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | -14 | 20 |
| 14 | Châtellerault | 26 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -37 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.