Ústí nad Labem vs Arsenal Česká Lípa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.07 expected goals for Ústí nad Labem and 1.16 for Arsenal Česká Lípa, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives Ústí nad Labem the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Ústí nad Labem win

58.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.07 – 1.16

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ústí nad Labem home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Arsenal Česká Lípa away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ústí nad Labem to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 21% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.07 goals for Ústí nad Labem and 1.16 for Arsenal Česká Lípa, a combined 3.23 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Ústí nad Labem win58%

Draw21%

Arsenal Česká Lípa win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

2–19.8%
1–19.5%
2–08.5%
1–08.2%
3–16.8%

Recent form

Ústí nad Labem

2026-08-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Varnsdorf · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dukla Praha · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Třinec · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Karlovy Vary · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-07T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal Česká Lípa · 3-3 (D)

Arsenal Česká Lípa

2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Opava · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Prostějov · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Vysočina Jihlava · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vlašim · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-23T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Baník Ostrava II · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

FNL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Karviná	12	9	0	3	13	27
2	Vysočina Jihlava	12	7	2	3	9	23
3	Dukla Praha	12	6	3	3	3	21
4	Ústí nad Labem	12	5	4	3	4	19
5	Vlašim	12	5	3	4	4	18
6	Příbram	12	4	6	2	2	18
7	Slavia Praha II	12	4	4	4	5	16
8	Baník Ostrava II	12	4	3	5	3	15
9	Táborsko	12	3	6	3	0	15
10	Kladno	12	3	5	4	-1	14
11	Opava	12	3	5	4	-3	14
12	Viktoria Žižkov	12	4	2	6	-8	14
13	Arsenal Česká Lípa	12	3	4	5	-6	13
14	Třinec	12	2	5	5	-7	11
15	Prostějov	12	1	7	4	-5	10
16	Hanácká	12	2	3	7	-13	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Ústí nad Labem win, at 58.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.