Town Stadium Usti · Referee L. Habermann · Analysis updated 16:52 UTC
Ústí nad Labem vs Kladno Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.74 expected goals for Ústí nad Labem and 1.08 for Kladno, a combined total of 2.82. That distribution gives Ústí nad Labem the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ústí nad Labem win
52.8% probability
Expected goals
1.74 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ústí nad Labem home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Kladno away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–09.0%
- 0–16.4%
Recent form
Ústí nad Labem
- 2026-08-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Varnsdorf · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dukla Praha · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Třinec · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Karlovy Vary · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-07T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal Česká Lípa · 3-3 (D)
Kladno
- 2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Hradec Králové · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Baník Ostrava · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T11:15:00.000Z · H vs Příbram · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Táborsko · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Karviná · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-24T16:00:00.000Z · Ústí nad Labem 2-1 Kladno (FNL)
- 2026-02-06T15:00:00.000Z · Ústí nad Labem 5-1 Kladno (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-04-04T16:00:00.000Z · Ústí nad Labem 0-0 Kladno (3. liga - CFL B)
- 2024-09-24T16:00:00.000Z · Ústí nad Labem 4-4 Kladno (Cup)
- 2024-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · Ústí nad Labem 1-2 Kladno (3. liga - CFL B)
FNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karviná | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 21 |
| 2 | Dukla Praha | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 20 |
| 3 | Ústí nad Labem | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 18 |
| 4 | Vysočina Jihlava | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17 |
| 5 | Příbram | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Vlašim | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | Slavia Praha II | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Kladno | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Táborsko | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 | Opava | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 11 | Viktoria Žižkov | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 13 |
| 12 | Baník Ostrava II | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 11 |
| 13 | Prostějov | 10 | 1 | 6 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | Arsenal Česká Lípa | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 15 | Třinec | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 16 | Hanácká | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -13 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ústí nad Labem win, at 52.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.