Ústí nad Orlicí vs Letohrad Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.75 expected goals for Ústí nad Orlicí and 1.00 for Letohrad, a combined total of 4.75. That distribution gives Ústí nad Orlicí the largest share of the 1X2 market at 85%, with the draw at 9%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 85% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Ústí nad Orlicí win

85.4% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

3.75 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ústí nad Orlicí home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Letohrad away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Ústí nad Orlicí win85%

Draw9%

Letohrad win6%

Double chance 1X

94%

Double chance 12

91%

Double chance X2

15%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals84%

Over 3.5 goals68%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

3–07.6%
3–17.6%
4–07.1%
4–17.1%
2–06.1%

Recent form

Ústí nad Orlicí

2026-10-17T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Přepeře · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Trutnov · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kolín · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Vykan · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Svitavy · 0-0 (D)

Letohrad

2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Police n/Metují · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Kosmonosy · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-20T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Chlumec nad Cidlinou · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Vysoké Mýto · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-05T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Přepeře · 1-8 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · Ústí nad Orlicí 4-1 Letohrad (4. liga - Divizie C)
2024-05-04T15:00:00.000Z · Ústí nad Orlicí 0-0 Letohrad (4. liga - Divizie C)
2023-10-07T14:00:00.000Z · Ústí nad Orlicí 1-1 Letohrad (4. liga - Divizie C)
2023-03-04T13:30:00.000Z · Ústí nad Orlicí 2-1 Letohrad (4. liga - Divizie C)
2022-08-06T15:00:00.000Z · Ústí nad Orlicí 1-2 Letohrad (4. liga - Divizie C)
2020-06-12T16:00:00.000Z · Ústí nad Orlicí 3-0 Letohrad (Friendlies Clubs)

4. liga - Divizie C table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vysoké Mýto	12	9	3	0	18	30
2	Přepeře	12	9	0	3	20	27
3	Kosmonosy	11	8	1	2	17	25
4	Trutnov	12	8	1	3	10	25
5	Turnov	12	7	2	3	12	23
6	Ústí nad Orlicí	12	6	3	3	10	21
7	Chlumec nad Cidlinou	12	6	3	3	6	21
8	Spartak Police n/Metují	11	5	1	5	-1	16
9	Kolín	11	4	3	4	2	15
10	Dvůr Králové	11	4	2	5	-3	14
11	Slavia Hradec Králové	12	4	2	6	-4	14
12	Hlinsko	12	4	1	7	-6	13
13	Vykan	12	3	2	7	-4	11
14	Svitavy	11	1	2	8	-17	5
15	Letohrad	11	0	2	9	-25	2
16	Chrudim II	12	0	2	10	-35	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Ústí nad Orlicí win, at 85.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.

A 85% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.