Stadion TJ Jiskra · Analysis updated 06:36 UTC
Ústí nad Orlicí vs Trutnov Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Ústí nad Orlicí and 1.13 for Trutnov, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives Ústí nad Orlicí the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ústí nad Orlicí win
47.1% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ústí nad Orlicí home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Trutnov away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ústí nad Orlicí to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 25% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for Ústí nad Orlicí and 1.13 for Trutnov, a combined 2.68 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–010.7%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–08.3%
- 0–17.8%
Recent form
Ústí nad Orlicí
- 2026-10-17T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Přepeře · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Trutnov · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kolín · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Vykan · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Svitavy · 0-0 (D)
Trutnov
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Kolín · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ústí nad Orlicí · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vykan · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Svitavy · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Dvůr Králové · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
4. liga - Divizie C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vysoké Mýto | 12 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 30 |
| 2 | Přepeře | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 27 |
| 3 | Kosmonosy | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 25 |
| 4 | Trutnov | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 25 |
| 5 | Turnov | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 23 |
| 6 | Ústí nad Orlicí | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 21 |
| 7 | Chlumec nad Cidlinou | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 |
| 8 | Spartak Police n/Metují | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 | Kolín | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 10 | Dvůr Králové | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
| 11 | Slavia Hradec Králové | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 14 |
| 12 | Hlinsko | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 13 |
| 13 | Vykan | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 | Svitavy | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -17 | 5 |
| 15 | Letohrad | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | -25 | 2 |
| 16 | Chrudim II | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | -35 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ústí nad Orlicí win, at 47.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.