· Analysis updated 15:47 UTC
Ustrem Donchevo vs Benkovski Isperih Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Ustrem Donchevo and 1.60 for Benkovski Isperih, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Ustrem Donchevo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.8% probability
Expected goals
1.83 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ustrem Donchevo home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Benkovski Isperih away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.5%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–27.6%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–05.9%
Recent form
Ustrem Donchevo
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Devnya 2005 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Septemvri Tervel · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Benkovski Isperih · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Volov Shumen · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Riltzi · 1-4 (L)
Benkovski Isperih
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Akademik Svishtov · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Septemvri Dragoevo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ustrem Donchevo · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Fratria II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dorostol · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-23T14:00:00.000Z · Ustrem Donchevo 3-2 Benkovski Isperih (Third League - Northeast)
- 2025-11-29T12:00:00.000Z · Ustrem Donchevo 2-2 Benkovski Isperih (Third League - Northeast)
- 2025-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · Ustrem Donchevo 4-1 Benkovski Isperih (Third League - Northeast)
- 2024-10-05T13:00:00.000Z · Ustrem Donchevo 0-0 Benkovski Isperih (Third League - Northeast)
- 2024-05-01T14:00:00.000Z · Ustrem Donchevo 1-2 Benkovski Isperih (Third League - Northeast)
- 2023-10-21T13:00:00.000Z · Ustrem Donchevo 1-2 Benkovski Isperih (Third League - Northeast)
Third League - Northeast table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ludogorets III | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 2 | Chernolomets 1919 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 17 |
| 3 | Chernomorets Balchik | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| 4 | Volov Shumen | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 16 |
| 5 | Svetkavitsa 14 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Benkovski Isperih | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Cherno more II | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Septemvri Tervel | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 9 | Devnya 2005 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 10 | Riltzi | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 10 |
| 11 | Botev Novi Pazar | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 12 | Olympic Varna | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 13 | Septemvri Dragoevo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 | Aksakovo | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | Fratria II | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -16 | 7 |
| 16 | Ustrem Donchevo | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | Dorostol | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.