· Analysis updated 06:36 UTC
Ustrem Donchevo vs Cherno more II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Ustrem Donchevo and 2.45 for Cherno more II, a combined total of 4.18. That distribution gives Cherno more II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Cherno more II win
53.8% probability
Expected goals
1.73 – 2.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ustrem Donchevo home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cherno more II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 27% / 19% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for Ustrem Donchevo and 2.45 for Cherno more II, a combined 4.18 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 79% and both teams to score at 75%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.9%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–36.5%
- 1–16.5%
- 2–35.6%
Recent form
Ustrem Donchevo
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fratria II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Dorostol · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Devnya 2005 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Septemvri Tervel · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Benkovski Isperih · 2-3 (L)
Cherno more II
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Svetkavitsa 14 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Botev Novi Pazar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Olympic Varna · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Aksakovo · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Chernomorets Balchik · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Third League - Northeast table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ludogorets III | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 28 |
| 2 | Volov Shumen | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 23 |
| 3 | Chernomorets Balchik | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Chernolomets 1919 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 21 |
| 5 | Svetkavitsa 14 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 19 |
| 6 | Botev Novi Pazar | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | Septemvri Tervel | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | Cherno more II | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 |
| 9 | Benkovski Isperih | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 10 | Septemvri Dragoevo | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 | Olympic Varna | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 12 |
| 12 | Devnya 2005 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 13 | Riltzi | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 10 |
| 14 | Aksakovo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Ustrem Donchevo | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 7 |
| 16 | Fratria II | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 7 |
| 17 | Dorostol | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -19 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cherno more II win, at 53.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.