· Analysis updated 10:20 UTC
Ustrem Donchevo vs Septemvri Tervel Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Ustrem Donchevo and 3.23 for Septemvri Tervel, a combined total of 4.85. That distribution gives Septemvri Tervel the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Septemvri Tervel win
68.8% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 3.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ustrem Donchevo home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Septemvri Tervel to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 17% / 15% / 69% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Ustrem Donchevo and 3.23 for Septemvri Tervel, a combined 4.85 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 86% and both teams to score at 77%, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
31%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
84%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–37.1%
- 1–26.6%
- 2–35.8%
- 1–45.7%
- 2–25.4%
Recent form
Ustrem Donchevo
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Devnya 2005 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Septemvri Tervel · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Benkovski Isperih · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Volov Shumen · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Riltzi · 1-4 (L)
Septemvri Tervel
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Septemvri Dragoevo · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Ustrem Donchevo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fratria II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Devnya 2005 · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Volov Shumen · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Third League - Northeast table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ludogorets III | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 25 |
| 2 | Volov Shumen | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 22 |
| 3 | Chernomorets Balchik | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 20 |
| 4 | Svetkavitsa 14 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 5 | Chernolomets 1919 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 18 |
| 6 | Septemvri Tervel | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | Benkovski Isperih | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 8 | Botev Novi Pazar | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 9 | Cherno more II | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Septemvri Dragoevo | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 11 |
| 11 | Devnya 2005 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 10 |
| 12 | Riltzi | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 10 |
| 13 | Olympic Varna | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -8 | 9 |
| 14 | Aksakovo | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | Ustrem Donchevo | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 7 |
| 16 | Fratria II | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -17 | 7 |
| 17 | Dorostol | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -16 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Septemvri Tervel win, at 68.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.