· Analysis updated 10:49 UTC
USV Iaşi vs Aerostar Bacau Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for USV Iaşi and 1.55 for Aerostar Bacau, a combined total of 3.33. That distribution gives USV Iaşi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.1% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
USV Iaşi home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aerostar Bacau away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates USV Iaşi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 23% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for USV Iaşi and 1.55 for Aerostar Bacau, a combined 3.33 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.7%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–06.4%
Recent form
USV Iaşi
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs CSM FC Vaslui · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gheorgheni · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs CSM Adjud · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Bacău II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ · 1-0 (W)
Aerostar Bacau
- 2026-08-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Viitorul Onesti · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs CSM FC Vaslui · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bucovina Rădăuţi · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Odorheiu Secuiesc · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-05-01T15:00:00.000Z · H vs CSM FC Vaslui · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSM FC Vaslui | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 26 |
| 2 | Târgu Secuiesc | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 20 |
| 3 | CSM Adjud | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 18 |
| 4 | USV Iaşi | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Bradul Putna | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 17 |
| 6 | Aerostar Bacau | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Odorheiu Secuiesc | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | FC Bacău II | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 14 |
| 9 | Gheorgheni | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 10 | Viitorul Onesti | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 6 |
| 11 | Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ | 10 | 0 | 4 | 6 | -16 | 4 |
| 12 | Paşcani | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -16 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.