Utah Royals W vs Bay FC W Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Utah Royals W and 0.92 for Bay FC W, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Utah Royals W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Utah Royals W win

59.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.86 – 0.92

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Utah Royals W home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bay FC W away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Utah Royals W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 22% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Utah Royals W and 0.92 for Bay FC W, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Utah Royals W win59%

Draw22%

Bay FC W win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

41%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–011.6%
2–010.7%
1–110.6%
2–19.9%
3–06.6%

Recent form

Utah Royals W

2026-09-27T23:00:00.000Z · H vs North Carolina Courage W · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T23:05:00.000Z · H vs Angel City W · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-13T00:45:00.000Z · A vs Houston Dash W · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Boston Legacy W · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-29T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Orlando Pride W · 2-1 (W)

Bay FC W

2026-09-27T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Orlando Pride W · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-20T23:05:00.000Z · H vs Racing Louisville W · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-17T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Denver Summit W · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Seattle Reign FC W · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-05T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Kansas City W · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

NWSL Women table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	NJ/NY Gotham FC W	28	16	7	5	13	55
2	San Diego Wave W	28	17	3	8	13	54
3	Washington Spirit W	28	16	4	8	14	52
4	Angel City W	29	14	7	8	19	49
5	Kansas City W	28	14	5	9	12	47
6	Utah Royals W	29	14	5	10	7	47
7	Portland Thorns W	29	13	8	8	7	47
8	Seattle Reign FC W	29	13	5	11	3	44
9	North Carolina Courage W	29	13	3	13	9	42
10	Denver Summit W	29	11	8	10	12	41
11	Orlando Pride W	28	11	3	14	-6	36
12	Houston Dash W	29	9	6	14	-4	33
13	Boston Legacy W	28	9	5	14	-9	32
14	Bay FC W	29	7	6	16	-16	27
15	Racing Louisville W	29	7	3	19	-22	24
16	Chicago Red Stars W	29	5	2	22	-52	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Utah Royals W win, at 59.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.