Estadio Heroes de San Ramon · Analysis updated 08:14 UTC
UTC Cajamarca vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for UTC Cajamarca and 1.48 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives UTC Cajamarca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.0% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
UTC Cajamarca home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Club Deportivo Los Chankas away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates UTC Cajamarca to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 24% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for UTC Cajamarca and 1.48 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–27.8%
- 1–07.2%
- 2–26.5%
Recent form
UTC Cajamarca
- 2026-10-18T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Cienciano · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Cristal · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Huancayo · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Juan Pablo II College · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T20:15:00.000Z · A vs Alianza Atletico · 2-3 (L)
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
- 2026-09-30T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Cienciano · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Cajamarca · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Cristal · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Juan Pablo II College · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-08-23T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Universitario · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.