UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for UTC Cajamarca and 1.58 for Deportivo Garcilaso, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Deportivo Garcilaso the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Deportivo Garcilaso win

50.7% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.00 – 1.58

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

UTC Cajamarca home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo Garcilaso away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportivo Garcilaso to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 24% / 25% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for UTC Cajamarca and 1.58 for Deportivo Garcilaso, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

UTC Cajamarca win24%

Draw25%

Deportivo Garcilaso win51%

Double chance 1X

49%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

76%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

0–112.0%
1–112.0%
0–29.4%
1–29.4%
0–07.6%

Recent form

UTC Cajamarca

2026-10-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FBC Melgar · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-18T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Cienciano · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Cristal · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Huancayo · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-11T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Juan Pablo II College · 1-2 (L)

Deportivo Garcilaso

2026-10-17T23:00:00.000Z · A vs FBC Melgar · 2-4 (L)
2026-10-10T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Sport Huancayo · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Universitario · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Boys · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Grau · 4-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	29	18	8	3	29	62
2	Universitario	30	16	8	6	18	56
3	FBC Melgar	30	15	8	7	19	53
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	29	14	6	9	12	48
5	Cusco	30	15	3	12	2	48
6	Cienciano	29	14	5	10	9	47
7	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	29	13	7	9	-8	46
8	Sporting Cristal	30	13	5	12	9	44
9	Sport Huancayo	30	13	5	12	-2	44
10	Alianza Atletico	30	12	7	11	1	43
11	Sport Boys	29	10	8	11	-1	38
12	Juan Pablo II College	30	10	8	12	-11	38
13	Atletico Grau	30	9	7	14	-7	34
14	Comerciantes Unidos	29	7	10	12	-5	31
15	FC Cajamarca	29	7	7	15	-12	28
16	UCV Moquegua	29	7	7	15	-18	28
17	ADT	30	6	9	15	-14	27
18	UTC Cajamarca	30	4	8	18	-21	15
1	Alianza Lima	17	12	4	1	22	40
2	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	17	10	4	3	4	34
3	Cienciano	17	10	3	4	12	33
4	Universitario	17	8	5	4	9	29
5	FBC Melgar	17	8	4	5	9	28
6	Cusco	17	8	3	6	-3	27
7	Deportivo Garcilaso	17	7	5	5	3	26
8	Alianza Atletico	17	5	6	6	2	21
9	Comerciantes Unidos	17	5	6	6	-2	21
10	ADT	17	5	5	7	1	20
11	Sport Boys	17	5	5	7	-4	20
12	Sporting Cristal	17	5	4	8	-2	19
13	UTC Cajamarca	17	4	6	7	-5	18
14	UCV Moquegua	17	5	3	9	-7	18
15	FC Cajamarca	17	4	5	8	-5	17
16	Atletico Grau	17	4	4	9	-6	16
17	Sport Huancayo	17	4	4	9	-10	16
18	Juan Pablo II College	17	4	4	9	-18	16
1	Sport Huancayo	13	9	1	3	8	28
2	Universitario	13	8	3	2	9	27
3	Sporting Cristal	13	8	1	4	11	25
4	FBC Melgar	13	7	4	2	10	25
5	Deportivo Garcilaso	12	7	1	4	9	22
6	Juan Pablo II College	13	6	4	3	7	22
7	Alianza Lima	12	6	4	2	7	22
8	Alianza Atletico	13	7	1	5	-1	22
9	Cusco	13	7	0	6	5	21
10	Sport Boys	12	5	3	4	3	18
11	Atletico Grau	13	5	3	5	-1	18
12	Cienciano	12	4	2	6	-3	14
13	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	12	3	3	6	-12	12
14	FC Cajamarca	12	3	2	7	-7	11
15	Comerciantes Unidos	12	2	4	6	-3	10
16	UCV Moquegua	12	2	4	6	-11	10
17	ADT	13	1	4	8	-15	7
18	UTC Cajamarca	13	0	2	11	-16	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Deportivo Garcilaso win, at 50.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.