UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for UTC Cajamarca and 1.70 for FBC Melgar, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives FBC Melgar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

FBC Melgar win

52.0% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.08 – 1.70

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

UTC Cajamarca home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FBC Melgar away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

UTC Cajamarca win24%

Draw24%

FBC Melgar win52%

Double chance 1X

48%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

76%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–111.4%
0–110.6%
1–29.7%
0–29.0%
1–06.7%

Recent form

UTC Cajamarca

2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Cristal · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Huancayo · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-11T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Juan Pablo II College · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-04T20:15:00.000Z · A vs Alianza Atletico · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-29T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Universitario · 2-4 (L)

FBC Melgar

2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitario · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T01:15:00.000Z · H vs Sport Boys · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Cusco · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T23:30:00.000Z · H vs ADT · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-01T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Grau · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-05-03T23:00:00.000Z · UTC Cajamarca 0-2 FBC Melgar (Primera División)
2025-07-19T18:00:00.000Z · UTC Cajamarca 1-2 FBC Melgar (Primera División)
2025-02-08T18:00:00.000Z · UTC Cajamarca 0-3 FBC Melgar (Primera División)
2024-10-22T23:00:00.000Z · UTC Cajamarca 0-1 FBC Melgar (Primera División)
2024-05-12T18:00:00.000Z · UTC Cajamarca 2-6 FBC Melgar (Primera División)
2023-08-15T23:00:00.000Z · UTC Cajamarca 1-1 FBC Melgar (Primera División)
2023-03-18T20:30:00.000Z · UTC Cajamarca 0-0 FBC Melgar (Primera División)
2022-07-29T20:30:00.000Z · UTC Cajamarca 0-1 FBC Melgar (Primera División)
2022-03-04T20:30:00.000Z · UTC Cajamarca 3-1 FBC Melgar (Primera División)
2021-08-17T20:30:00.000Z · UTC Cajamarca 1-0 FBC Melgar (Primera División)

Primera División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	27	16	8	3	26	56
2	Universitario	28	14	8	6	12	50
3	Deportivo Garcilaso	28	14	6	8	14	48
4	FBC Melgar	28	13	8	7	16	47
5	Cusco	27	14	3	10	2	45
6	Cienciano	28	13	5	10	8	44
7	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	28	12	7	9	-9	43
8	Sporting Cristal	28	12	5	11	9	41
9	Alianza Atletico	27	11	7	9	5	40
10	Sport Boys	27	10	8	9	3	38
11	Sport Huancayo	28	11	5	12	-6	38
12	Juan Pablo II College	28	9	8	11	-10	35
13	Atletico Grau	28	9	6	13	-5	33
14	Comerciantes Unidos	28	7	10	11	-3	31
15	FC Cajamarca	28	7	7	14	-11	28
16	ADT	28	6	8	14	-13	26
17	UCV Moquegua	28	6	7	15	-19	25
18	UTC Cajamarca	28	4	8	16	-19	15
1	Alianza Lima	17	12	4	1	22	40
2	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	17	10	4	3	4	34
3	Cienciano	17	10	3	4	12	33
4	Universitario	17	8	5	4	9	29
5	FBC Melgar	17	8	4	5	9	28
6	Cusco	17	8	3	6	-3	27
7	Deportivo Garcilaso	17	7	5	5	3	26
8	Alianza Atletico	17	5	6	6	2	21
9	Comerciantes Unidos	17	5	6	6	-2	21
10	ADT	17	5	5	7	1	20
11	Sport Boys	17	5	5	7	-4	20
12	Sporting Cristal	17	5	4	8	-2	19
13	UTC Cajamarca	17	4	6	7	-5	18
14	UCV Moquegua	17	5	3	9	-7	18
15	FC Cajamarca	17	4	5	8	-5	17
16	Atletico Grau	17	4	4	9	-6	16
17	Sport Huancayo	17	4	4	9	-10	16
18	Juan Pablo II College	17	4	4	9	-18	16
1	Sporting Cristal	11	7	1	3	11	22
2	Deportivo Garcilaso	11	7	1	3	11	22
3	Sport Huancayo	11	7	1	3	4	22
4	Universitario	11	6	3	2	3	21
5	Juan Pablo II College	11	5	4	2	8	19
6	FBC Melgar	11	5	4	2	7	19
7	Alianza Atletico	10	6	1	3	3	19
8	Sport Boys	10	5	3	2	7	18
9	Cusco	10	6	0	4	5	18
10	Atletico Grau	11	5	2	4	1	17
11	Alianza Lima	10	4	4	2	4	16
12	Cienciano	11	3	2	6	-4	11
13	FC Cajamarca	11	3	2	6	-6	11
14	Comerciantes Unidos	11	2	4	5	-1	10
15	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	11	2	3	6	-13	9
16	UCV Moquegua	11	1	4	6	-12	7
17	ADT	11	1	3	7	-14	6
18	UTC Cajamarca	11	0	2	9	-14	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is FBC Melgar win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.