Estadio Héroes de San Ramón · Referee Jordi Espinoza · Analysis updated 13:47 UTC
UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for UTC Cajamarca and 1.42 for Sporting Cristal, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Sporting Cristal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sporting Cristal win
47.2% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.42
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
UTC Cajamarca home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sporting Cristal away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.9%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–29.1%
- 0–09.1%
- 1–29.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.20 (model 52.6% vs market 42.4%, edge +10.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.20 | 42.4% | 52.6% | 1.90 | +10.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.4% | 73.2% | 1.37 | +0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.80 | 52.3% | 52.8% | 1.89 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Away | 1.95 | 46.9% | 47.2% | 2.12 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Home | 3.50 | 26.1% | 26.0% | 3.85 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 26.9% | 26.8% | 3.73 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.25 | 75.3% | 74.0% | 1.35 | -1.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 57.6% | 47.4% | 2.11 | -10.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
UTC Cajamarca
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Cristal · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Huancayo · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Juan Pablo II College · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T20:15:00.000Z · A vs Alianza Atletico · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Universitario · 2-4 (L)
Sporting Cristal
- 2026-10-01T20:00:00.000Z · H vs ADT · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T20:15:00.000Z · A vs ADT · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Grau · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs UCV Moquegua · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-19T16:00:00.000Z · UTC Cajamarca 2-3 Sporting Cristal (Primera División)
- 2025-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · UTC Cajamarca 2-2 Sporting Cristal (Primera División)
- 2025-04-06T20:30:00.000Z · UTC Cajamarca 4-1 Sporting Cristal (Primera División)
- 2024-08-25T16:00:00.000Z · UTC Cajamarca 0-4 Sporting Cristal (Primera División)
- 2024-03-31T20:30:00.000Z · UTC Cajamarca 1-2 Sporting Cristal (Primera División)
- 2023-09-26T01:00:00.000Z · UTC Cajamarca 1-1 Sporting Cristal (Primera División)
- 2023-05-07T20:15:00.000Z · UTC Cajamarca 1-1 Sporting Cristal (Primera División)
- 2022-07-26T20:15:00.000Z · UTC Cajamarca 0-2 Sporting Cristal (Primera División)
- 2022-02-25T20:30:00.000Z · UTC Cajamarca 2-3 Sporting Cristal (Primera División)
- 2021-09-17T18:15:00.000Z · UTC Cajamarca 1-6 Sporting Cristal (Primera División)
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sporting Cristal win, at 47.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.