Utebo vs Eibar II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Utebo and 1.30 for Eibar II, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Utebo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

66.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.45 – 1.30

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Utebo home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Eibar II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Utebo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 26% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Utebo and 1.30 for Eibar II, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Utebo win41%

Draw26%

Eibar II win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–112.1%
1–09.3%
2–18.7%
0–18.3%
1–27.8%

Recent form

Utebo

2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Barbastro · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Reddis · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Olot · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs SD Logroñés · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Peña Sport · 1-1 (D)

Eibar II

2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Racing Santander II · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Compostela · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ourense CF · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnástica Torrelavega · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Oviedo II · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-04-12T16:00:00.000Z · Utebo 1-1 Eibar II (Segunda División RFEF - Group 2)
2026-01-04T15:00:00.000Z · Utebo 2-3 Eibar II (Segunda División RFEF - Group 2)
2025-04-13T10:00:00.000Z · Utebo 2-1 Eibar II (Segunda División RFEF - Group 2)
2024-11-30T15:00:00.000Z · Utebo 0-1 Eibar II (Segunda División RFEF - Group 2)

Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona B	6	5	1	0	12	16
2	Osasuna II	6	4	1	1	6	13
3	Ebro	6	4	1	1	5	13
4	Espanyol II	5	4	0	1	11	12
5	Olot	6	3	2	1	4	11
6	Manresa	6	3	1	2	6	10
7	Reddis	6	3	0	3	-2	9
8	Terrassa	5	2	2	1	1	8
9	UD Logroñés II	6	2	2	2	-1	8
10	Girona II	5	2	1	2	1	7
11	Utebo	6	1	4	1	0	7
12	Tudelano	6	2	1	3	-1	7
13	Peña Sport	6	2	1	3	-2	7
14	Barbastro	6	1	3	2	-1	6
15	Náxara	5	1	1	3	-6	4
16	Calamocha	6	1	0	5	-12	3
17	SD Logroñés	6	0	2	4	-8	2
18	Arnedo	6	0	1	5	-13	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.