· Analysis updated 14:45 UTC
Utebo vs SD Logroñés Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.51 expected goals for Utebo and 0.71 for SD Logroñés, a combined total of 2.22. That distribution gives Utebo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Utebo win
56.6% probability
Expected goals
1.51 – 0.71
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Utebo home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
SD Logroñés away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Utebo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 26% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.51 goals for Utebo and 0.71 for SD Logroñés, a combined 2.22 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.4%
- 2–012.4%
- 1–111.6%
- 0–010.8%
- 2–18.8%
Recent form
Utebo
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Barbastro · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Reddis · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Olot · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs SD Logroñés · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Peña Sport · 1-1 (D)
SD Logroñés
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Barcelona B · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Peña Sport · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Olot · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Girona II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Utebo · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona B | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 16 |
| 2 | Osasuna II | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Ebro | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Espanyol II | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 12 |
| 5 | Olot | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Manresa | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 7 | Reddis | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 8 | Terrassa | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | UD Logroñés II | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 10 | Girona II | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Utebo | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Tudelano | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Peña Sport | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Barbastro | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 15 | Náxara | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 16 | Calamocha | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -12 | 3 |
| 17 | SD Logroñés | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 2 |
| 18 | Arnedo | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Utebo win, at 56.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.