· Analysis updated 16:52 UTC
Utebo vs UD Logroñés II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Utebo and 0.98 for UD Logroñés II, a combined total of 2.18. That distribution gives Utebo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.2% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Utebo home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
UD Logroñés II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Utebo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 29% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Utebo and 0.98 for UD Logroñés II, a combined 2.18 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.6%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–011.4%
- 0–111.1%
- 2–08.2%
Recent form
Utebo
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Barbastro · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Reddis · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Olot · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs SD Logroñés · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Peña Sport · 1-1 (D)
UD Logroñés II
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Barbastro · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Olot · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Manresa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Calamocha · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Barcelona B · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona B | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 19 |
| 2 | Osasuna II | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Espanyol II | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 13 |
| 4 | Ebro | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | Olot | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 6 | Manresa | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| 7 | Terrassa | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Girona II | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Reddis | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 10 | Tudelano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Peña Sport | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | UD Logroñés II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | Barbastro | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Utebo | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 15 | Náxara | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 16 | Calamocha | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | SD Logroñés | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 3 |
| 18 | Arnedo | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.