Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium · Referee T. Somsingha · Analysis updated 16:58 UTC
Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 1.15 for Rayong FC, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives Uthai Thani the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Uthai Thani win
45.9% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Uthai Thani home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rayong FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Uthai Thani to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 25% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Uthai Thani and 1.15 for Rayong FC, a combined 2.68 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 1–010.5%
- 2–19.2%
- 2–08.0%
- 0–17.9%
Recent form
Uthai Thani
- 2026-09-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ayutthaya FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Pattani · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Lamphun Warrior · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-05-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Chiangrai United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Prachuap · 0-2 (L)
Rayong FC
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ratchaburi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Chonburi FC · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Prachuap · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Bangkok United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-03T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Ratchaburi · 1-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Thai League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buriram United | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 13 |
| 2 | Prachuap | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 3 | Port FC | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | Ratchaburi | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 5 | Uthai Thani | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 6 | Bangkok United | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Rayong FC | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | Ayutthaya FC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 9 | Sisaket United | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | BG Pathum United | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 11 | Sukhothai FC | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Chiangrai United | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 13 | Lamphun Warrior | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 14 | Pattani | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Rasi Salai United | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 1 |
| 16 | Chonburi FC | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Uthai Thani win, at 45.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.