· Analysis updated 19:52 UTC
Utiel vs Villarreal III Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.78 expected goals for Utiel and 1.68 for Villarreal III, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Villarreal III the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Villarreal III win
58.9% probability
Expected goals
0.78 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Utiel home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Villarreal III away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Villarreal III to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 17% / 24% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.78 goals for Utiel and 1.68 for Villarreal III, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.4%
- 0–212.1%
- 1–111.2%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–08.6%
Recent form
Utiel
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Levante II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Saguntino · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Roda · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Soneja · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Acero · 1-1 (D)
Villarreal III
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Saguntino · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Roda · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Soneja · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Levante II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Levante II · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villarreal III | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 18 |
| 2 | Levante II | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 17 |
| 3 | Vall de Uxó | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 15 |
| 4 | Hércules II | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 5 | Torrent | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Crevillente | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Eldense B | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Roda | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Acero | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 10 | Saguntino | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | Atzeneta | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Soneja | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 13 | SC Torrevieja | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 14 | Ontinyent 1931 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 15 | Jove Español | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 6 |
| 16 | Buñol | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Torrellano | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 18 | Utiel | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Villarreal III win, at 58.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.