Stadion Galgenwaard · Referee Martin Van den Kerkhof, Netherlands · Analysis updated 15:32 UTC
Utrecht vs GO Ahead Eagles Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.08 expected goals for Utrecht and 3.40 for GO Ahead Eagles, a combined total of 5.48. That distribution gives GO Ahead Eagles the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 90% for over 2.5 goals and 84% for both teams to score, with 2–3 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
GO Ahead Eagles win
63.3% probability
Expected goals
2.08 – 3.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Utrecht home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
GO Ahead Eagles away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
37%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–35.9%
- 1–35.7%
- 2–25.2%
- 1–25.0%
- 2–45.0%
Recent form
Utrecht
- 2026-10-11T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Willem II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Feyenoord · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Excelsior · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T12:00:00.000Z · H vs GO Ahead Eagles · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-30T10:15:00.000Z · H vs PSV Eindhoven · 1-6 (L)
GO Ahead Eagles
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Rotterdam · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:45:00.000Z · A vs NEC Nijmegen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Groningen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-08T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Utrecht · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-29T16:45:00.000Z · A vs AZ Alkmaar · 2-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-08T12:00:00.000Z · Utrecht 3-3 GO Ahead Eagles (Eredivisie)
- 2026-03-22T13:30:00.000Z · Utrecht 2-0 GO Ahead Eagles (Eredivisie)
- 2025-11-30T13:30:00.000Z · Utrecht 2-2 GO Ahead Eagles (Eredivisie)
- 2025-04-06T12:30:00.000Z · Utrecht 2-2 GO Ahead Eagles (Eredivisie)
- 2024-12-15T11:15:00.000Z · Utrecht 3-3 GO Ahead Eagles (Eredivisie)
- 2024-05-26T16:00:00.000Z · Utrecht 1-2 GO Ahead Eagles (Eredivisie)
- 2024-04-14T12:30:00.000Z · Utrecht 2-1 GO Ahead Eagles (Eredivisie)
- 2023-12-10T11:15:00.000Z · Utrecht 2-0 GO Ahead Eagles (Eredivisie)
- 2023-03-18T15:30:00.000Z · Utrecht 1-2 GO Ahead Eagles (Eredivisie)
- 2023-01-15T13:30:00.000Z · Utrecht 2-2 GO Ahead Eagles (Eredivisie)
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is GO Ahead Eagles win, at 63.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 84% and over 2.5 goals at 90%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.