Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Utrecht and 2.15 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 4.40. That distribution gives Utrecht the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

61.7% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.25 – 2.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Utrecht home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
PEC Zwolle away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Utrecht win42%

Draw20%

PEC Zwolle win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals93%

Over 2.5 goals81%

Over 3.5 goals64%

Both teams to score79%

Correct score

2–27.2%
2–16.7%
1–26.4%
1–15.9%
3–25.4%

Recent form

Utrecht

2026-10-11T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Willem II · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-20T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Feyenoord · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-13T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Excelsior · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-08T12:00:00.000Z · H vs GO Ahead Eagles · 3-3 (D)
2026-08-30T10:15:00.000Z · H vs PSV Eindhoven · 1-6 (L)

PEC Zwolle

2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Cambuur · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Groningen · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-13T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Feyenoord · 0-7 (L)
2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Rotterdam · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs NEC Nijmegen · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-02-22T13:30:00.000Z · Utrecht 1-1 PEC Zwolle (Eredivisie)
2025-08-31T12:30:00.000Z · Utrecht 2-0 PEC Zwolle (Eredivisie)
2025-02-01T17:45:00.000Z · Utrecht 3-3 PEC Zwolle (Eredivisie)
2024-08-11T12:30:00.000Z · Utrecht 1-0 PEC Zwolle (Eredivisie)
2024-04-03T18:00:00.000Z · Utrecht 5-1 PEC Zwolle (Eredivisie)
2023-08-27T10:15:00.000Z · Utrecht 0-1 PEC Zwolle (Eredivisie)
2022-05-07T18:00:00.000Z · Utrecht 1-1 PEC Zwolle (Eredivisie)
2021-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · Utrecht 5-1 PEC Zwolle (Eredivisie)
2021-01-30T17:45:00.000Z · Utrecht 3-3 PEC Zwolle (Eredivisie)
2020-11-21T20:00:00.000Z · Utrecht 1-1 PEC Zwolle (Eredivisie)

Eredivisie table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Feyenoord	8	6	2	0	20	20
2	PSV Eindhoven	8	6	1	1	16	19
3	AZ Alkmaar	8	6	1	1	10	19
4	Twente	8	5	2	1	8	17
5	Ajax	8	4	3	1	12	15
6	Groningen	8	4	2	2	6	14
7	Fortuna Sittard	8	4	2	2	-1	14
8	GO Ahead Eagles	8	2	5	1	2	11
9	Excelsior	8	3	2	3	2	11
10	Heerenveen	8	2	3	3	0	9
11	NEC Nijmegen	8	2	3	3	-1	9
12	Cambuur	8	2	2	4	-8	8
13	Utrecht	8	2	2	4	-11	8
14	Sparta Rotterdam	8	1	3	4	-7	6
15	Telstar	8	1	3	4	-7	6
16	PEC Zwolle	8	1	1	6	-15	4
17	ADO Den Haag	8	0	3	5	-10	3
18	Willem II	8	0	2	6	-16	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 79% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.